20 November, 2009

Research Reports for 20 November, 2009

BMA

• Economy: Monetary Policy - Last Call – 50bps (take it or leave it)
• Cut-off Yields Revive Sentiments while Nov 28th Remains Key to Continued Strength
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• KOHE - 1Q FY10 Result Review

Arif habib Limited

• Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) 1QFY2010 – Result Review

JS

• Economic numbers and expected rate cut drive marke

19 November, 2009

Research Reports for 19 November, 2009

BMA

• Cement: DGKC - Keep a Lookout!
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• ACPL Result Review - 1Q FY10

KASB

• PSO: Volumes, margins spur upgrade

JS

• PL: Earnings to improve in 2QFY10

18 November, 2009

Research Reports for 18 November, 2009

AKD

• NSS_Liquidity and the monetary policy

BMA

• Refinery: GRMs still in line with last Quarter – Maintain UNDERWEIGHT
• Technical Analysis

KASB

• Engro: Where you want to be in Pakistan

Elixire

• Cement plants shut down - Excess supply continues

JS

• FFC: Attractive dividend yield of 13%/'Buy'

Market Close !

Pakistan equities traded volatile session with a positive open on the back of sentiment carried forth from yesterdays aggressive buying by FII (Net USD4.5mn and local institutions - Net USD6.3mn by Mutual Funds). Profit booking in late trading wiped away early gains with stocks mostly closing at day lows. Interestingly, E&P's failed to attract attention despite news that MOL Pakistan. operator of TAL block would invest between USD30-50mn to build a new gas processing plant (TAL Block ownership: POL 21%, OGDC and PPL 28% each). Media reports accusing OGDC's management of negligence that led to declining production from key Qadirpur field was brushed aside by the market. We are of the view that the news article was exaggerated and see no fundamental change, recommending to take advantage on any weakness. PTC traded highest volumes since March this year on local and foreign interest. We continue to recommend PTC on attractive yield with June2010 TP of over PKR26/sh.

We expect short-term market direction to remain sensitive to foreign flows with rate cut in the MPS to be announced on the 24th of this month a sweetener.

17 november, 2009

Research reports for 17 November, 2009

AKD

• Banking Sector: Value multiples set for rerating

BMA

• Telecom & Banks: Potential Telenor-Warid Deal: BAFL & PTC trigger
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• ATRL - Financial Results 1Q FY10

Atlas capital markets

• FFBL – 9M/CY09 Detailed Accounts Analysis

Elixire

• Askari Bank's merger with Askari Leasing
• Fund Watch

KASB

• Economy: External account to lead recovery

16 november, 2009

Research reports for 16 november, 2009

BMA

• Technical Outlook: Gold steaming through to USD1,300

Merrill Lynch

• Merrill Lynch report on OGDC and POs

Arif habib limited

• Improving trade deficit and workers’ remittances

JS

• Hubco: Attractive at current levels

Market Close !

Pakistan equities closed up 1.6% above 9k ahead of the weekend on late trading mainly led by locals. Stocks opened negative due to early morning bomb attack on the intelligence office in northern border city of Peshawar but covered losses and gained as locals took advantage at weakness. Moreover, peaceful elections in the northern Gilgit Baltistan area that wrapped up yesterday and saw participation by all major political parties boosted confidence in the current democratic setup. OGDC and MCB that were under pressure for the last two sessions witnessed a pullback to close +2.5% and +1.2% on rumors that FII selling has subsided. Moreover, key sentiment driver JSCL PA closed strong, up 4.86% trading over 17mn shares as investors eye +PKR35/sh in the coming days. PTC traded more than 10mn shares up 1.4% at close and we recommend BUY with June end TP of PKR26.6/sh. ENGRO continued to gain as locals refuse to book profits despite +7% increase in two days on news of inclusion in MSCI Frontier markets.

We anticipate activity to pickup next week and expect stocks to gain on possible rate cut in the upcoming MPS also indicated by declining PIB yields in the secondary market. Looking at index to test 9500 as most negatives in our view are priced in.