Monday, August 31, 2009

Market Close !

Equities remained positive driven by sustained foreign funds buying as the index whizzed passed 8,600 levels. Massive interest in E&P giant OGDC PA was witnessed once again on reported FII's interest followed by financials (MCB PA & NBP PA). Incidentally, NBP PA announced its CY09 results that accounted for higher bad loans that resulted in lower earnings EPS PKR5.87, but stock surprised everyone closing the day upper lock. Similarly, MCB PA remained strong throughout the day despite trading SPOT for cash payout as did UBL PA as market bets on higher 3QCY09 earnings. Textiles (NML PA) and cements remained weak on reports that Central Bank may gradually remove long term finance facility being given to exporters with textiles likely to be hit the hardest. Cements were down amid reports that the competition commission authority had taken notice of the cement cartel, local price manipulations etc. POL and PPL took a breather today with some profit taking with PSO taking news about its circular debt being cleared positively.

We feel oil stocks are ripe for a correction and we recommend accumulation in banking stocks particularly UBL PA and NBP PA. Investors should also be wary about the escalating security situation and possible political noise that could impact equities in the short term. Needless to say, foreign funds investment will continue to drive the medium term direction.


Source: Elixire - Closing Bell - Laggard financials take charge

Research Reports for 31 August, 2009

AKD
BMA

Friday, August 28, 2009

Market Close !

Equities closed on a strong note (+2.72%) led by rumors of oil discoveries pushing energy stocks higher. PPL was the star performer hitting upper check on talk of sizeable discoveries in the 'NASHPA-1' block that is co-owned by PPL (26%), OGDC (56%) and remaining Government holdings. The size and impact of the discoveries could not be confirmed as the same had not been updated by the respective companies. Aside from healthy activity in oil stocks, the market was also probably happy to see the GOP seriousness in resolving the buildup of 'corporate debt' with Finance Minister saying they planned to settle the issue before month end. PSO and HUBCO both companies that are listed are expected to benefit most if the issue is resolved, with higher payouts expected in the next quarter earnings season. NBP also gained ahead of its results tomorrow with market talk of decline in earnings due to bad loans, but gossip in market quoting a possible cash payout to ease shareholders concerns.

Market continues to perform very well spurred by sustained foreign flows. Although the market is in over bought region, locals seem to be happy to remain long expecting FII inflows to continue on improved macro economic outlook. With NBP results on Monday, market is expected to remain volatile. BUY banks for now as we feel most negatives have been priced in.

28 August, 2009

Research Reports for 28 August, 2009

AKD

BMA
KASB

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Market close !

Equities witnessed another volatile day closing flat with index facing resistance near 8,300 levels. As market players remain divided on the short term outlook, participants were hesitant in taking fresh buying positions in an overbought market. Moreover, rise in Treasury Bill cut off rates yesterday, 12 month rate up 22bps to 12.44% possibly contributed to the tentativeness as it hints that further discount rate cut in next MPS may not happen. Volumes did pick up late in the day led by oil stocks POL ahead of its results and whispers of a bonus payout. MCB kept interest alive as it stayed strong on account of foreign inflows coupled with Nishat Mills Ltd (NML PA) acquiring PKR1.6bn worth of MCB shares.

With the index showing resistance at 8,300 levels we expect to see volatility tomorrow ahead of the weekend. NBP (HY results on Saturday) is likely to remain weak on rumors the bank may show much lower earnings spooked by increased NPL's.

27 August, 2009

Research Reports for 27 August, 2009

AKD
BMA
IGI
FCEL
KASB
Elixire
JS

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Market Close !

Equities closed on a higher note +0.9% after a volatile session. Oil production increase from key Pindori field brought POL PA in limelight with stock closing at upper circuit. Moreover, rumors of group companies increasing stake in MCB Bank pushed the stock up gaining 5% (NML announced intention to increase strategic holding in MCB yesterday). Adamjee Insurance result was eagerly awaited by the market that somewhat disappointed with EPS PKR5.18 and PKR1.5/sh cash payout. PTC PA traded volatile with stock bouncing from lower lock. News of big brokers taking long positions and FII interest resulted in stock to continue upper trajectory.

26 August, 2009

Research Reports for 26 August, 2009

AKD
BMA
IGI

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Market close !

Equities witnessed volatile trading as benchmark index hover the crucial 8,300 levels. News of USD5bn worth potential grant as "Marshal Plan" from USA, positives from FoDP ministerial meetings in Istanbul (approval of reconstruction of the war torn northern region of Malakand) and yesterday's S&P ratings upgrade pushed market up and held strong in early trading. Nishat Mills result kept interest alive as the textile player announced FY09 results with PKR2/sh cash payout and earnings in line with market expectations. Furthermore, yesterday's exceptional payout by PPL brought POL in limelight as players bet on higher dividend with results due in the coming days. Profit taking in late trading pulled the index below 8300 with OGDC facing the brunt of selling closing -2.1%.

.

25 August, 2009

Research Reports for 25 August, 2009

AKD
BMA
IGI

Monday, August 24, 2009

Market Close !

An auspicious start to the Holy Month of Ramadan with KSE100 closing 2.21% higher to 8,287points led by E&P stocks. Technical indicators were positive with all pivotal indicators denoting an upside following Friday's positive closing above the 8100 level. Rating upgrade by S&P's and market talk of re-introduction of the traditional badla or CFS lifted sentiment. PPL closed limit up on the back of surprise bonus payout with earnings coming in line with estimates. Further, OGDC and POL followed suit gaining 3.9% and 5% respectively on reports of foreign funds buying and with crude oil sustaining above the US70/bbl level. Telecom giant, PTC reached upper circuit during mid-day trading on market rumors that Saudi Telecom is interested in acquiring strategic stake in the company. Volumes were healthy considering the shorter timings and lower interest during Ramadan. Confidence of local funds has improved lately on continued foreign interest and with the market sustaining above the 8000point level.

The recovery in AICL continued with the second upper lock in succession as result-related apprehensions in the stock seem to be priced-in. Cements (particularly DGKC) seem ripe for accumulation as we feel that recent negatives seem to be reflected in current values given the batterings that the stocks have seen in the past couple of sessions. Today's comprehensive upturn places the market within striking distance of the 8500 point level. However, the market seems to be attaching undue high expectations to the awaiting corporate earnings. While the 9000 level for the KSE-100 does not seem inconceivable in the short-term, we urge exit at the height of any further potential rally (ideally between 8500-8700 levels).

BUYS: AHSL, ENGRO, DGKC, UBL, NML

SELLS: PTC, PPL

Friday, August 21, 2009

Market Close !

Equities closed with a bang with across the board activity edging past 8,100. Normally what was expected to be a dull day ahead of next week commencement of the Ramadan, where normally trading volumes shrink; came as an utter surprise to everyone. From a glance smaller banks witnessed decent volumes led by BAFL amid reports that Warid Telecom, the banks cellular arm, may well be bought out by Singtel or take management control, giving a one off earnings gain. Overall buying euphoria was induced after confirmation that country's reserves had touched USD13bn after receipt of funds from IMF, highest levels seen since October 2007. The change in macro economic situation coupled by sustained foreign fund inflows prompted locals to take long positions. Telecom giant PTC continued to outperform with talk of foreign buying, although we feel the stock has been underperforming, and probably buying was done by locals, who are betting on the company to announce another dividend.

The market will now re-open on Monday under Ramadan timings that will be shorter and given historical trends, lower volumes. However, with the introduction of a new leverage product for equity market commencing possibly next week, we foresee locals remaining long. The direction will also be very much dependent on FII flows, that will take the market to 8,400 levels.

21 August, 2009

Research Reports for 21 august, 2009

AKD
BMA

Monday, August 17, 2009

18 August, 2009

Research reports for 18 august, 2009


AKD

BMA
KASB
IGI

Elixire

Elixir Research - Flash Note

Moody's upgrades outlook to stable

§ Moody's Investors Service has revised Pakistan's Sovereign rating outlook (foreign and local currency bond) from 'Negative' to 'Stable', while keeping the rating (B3) intact. According to the communiqué released by Moody's, augmentation of Pakistan's IMF program by USD3.2bn, reduction of subsidies, better targeting of social welfare programs and ongoing policy and structural reforms were the main factors behind current revision in sovereign outlook.

§ Pakistan's economy has been showing considerable signs of recovery. Headline inflation has declined to 11.2%YoY in July 2009 from its peak of 25.3%YoY in August 2008. Core inflation has also dropped to 14.0% in July-09 from its peak of 18.9% in Feb-09. Current Account Deficit has come down to 5.3% of GDP in FY09 compared to 8.5% in FY08 while fiscal deficit has slipped from 7.6% of GDP to 4.3% during the same period. Furthermore, compared to FY09, exchange rate has become relatively stable while Pakistan's Forex reserves have increased to USD11.8bn from USD9.9bn in December 2008 . All of these factors had already been pointing towards a favorable review from international credit rating agencies.

§ The CDS spread on Pakistan's sovereign bond has already slipped to ~1650bps from its peak of 5,000bps in October 2008, depicting a considerable reduction in country's risk. Following Moody's review, we expect CDS spread to drop and PKR/USD exchange rate to stabilize further. We believe that the revision in outlook from 'Negative' to 'Stable' may also pave way for an upgrade in ratings in the future .we also expect Standard and Poors' to follow suit with a revision in outlook on Pakistan's sovereign bonds.

§ Compared to a net outflow of USD442mn from the local bourse during FY09, re-emergence of foreign investor confidence is visible with a USD49mn net inflow since July'09.

§ Given the huge discount at which KSE-100 is trading relative to its regional peers, we expect the re-rating of the local equity market to continue. The KSE-100 index is currently trading at a CY09 P/E 7.6x and offers a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%. Our top picks are HUBC, KAPCO, OGDC, POL FFC, MCB, PTC.

17 August, 2009

Research reports for 17th August, 2009

AKD