31 December, 2009

Research reports for 31 December, 2009

AKD

• Banking Sector: Liquidity attaining importance

BMA

• Chemicals: ICI - Reinitiating Coverage

IGI

• IMF transfers 4th tranche of USD 1.2bn to Pakistan

Elixire

• 5MFY10 Tax Collection: Stagnation Goes On

KASB

• PSMC: Upgrade to Neutral following price hike

30 December, 2009

Research Reports for 30th December, 2009

AKD

• Telecom Sector: Monthly Update

BMA

• Technology & Communication: NETSOL - Tried and Tested

Elixire

• Petroleum products pricing formula review

KASB

• Banks: 'Transitional' provision introduced

JS

• IMF tranche and interest rate outlook

29 December, 2009

Research Reports for 29 December, 2009

BMA

• Fertilizer: Fertilizer Off-take Robust as Ever

IGI

• Fertilizer offtake numbers show increase

JS

• DAP offtake up 114%YoY in 11M2009

first capital

• Banks: Spread declined in Nov 2009

KASB

• Fertilizer sales jump in Nov-09

Elixire

• NFDC Data 11MCY09

24 December, 2009

Research reports for 24 December, 2009

IGI

• NML - AES Acquisition: Powerful consolidation

AKD

• IMF Financing & economic implications

BMA

• Banks: BAFL - Time to BUY

Kasb

• Refineries could benefit from pricing changes

Elixire

• IMF's Third Tranche finally Okayed

JS

• NML: AES; another feather in the cap

23 December, 2009

Research Reports for 23 December, 2009

AKD

• NIT-LOC Fund: Further Considerations

KASB

• Banks: Asset growth to outpace NPLs?

BMA

• Cement: The Dark Matter - Cement Demand
• Trailblazer

IGI

• Refineries to wage on pricing battle

JS

• Macro, politics & the market

Arif habib Limited

• What is the current yield curve implying!

22 December, 2009

Research Reports for 22 December, 2009

AKD

• AKD Daily Report

BMA

• External Account: Shedding the Fat

KASB

• Cement: Mapping 2010 opportunities

JS

• BAFL: Earnings revision/Upgrade to 'Buy'

21 December, 2009

Research reports for 21 December, 2009

AKD

• Fertilizer Sector: 4QCY09 outlook

BMA

• Technical Outlook: Indecisive behaviour affirms nervousness
• Trailblazer

Elixire

• Telecom Numbers - Stagnation Continues

JS

• Auto & Allied: Snapshot

KASB

• Domestic Liquidity holds the key

18 December, 2009

Research Reports for 18 December, 2009

AKD

• Eroding external stability, will this trend continue?

BMA

• Cement: ACPL - Reinitiating Coverage with a BUY
• Trailblazer

KASB

• Refineries: 2QFY10 earnings outlook

IGI

• ENGRO Demerger - unlikely to depress valuation

Elixire

• NIT - Offloading its LOC Holding

JS

• Pakistan lags behind regional markets

Market Close !

Equities opened upbeat as market reacted positively to Supreme Court's decision to declare NRO null and void, thereby opening pending cases against politicians. Locals showed keen interest mainly in Oil stocks in early trading. However, profit taking at day end wiped away early gains with market closing marginally negative. Interestingly, top volume leaders of the day comprised of second tier stocks with PACE, BOP and BAFL leading the volumes charts. Financials and oil stocks took a breather amid low volumes after rallying in the last three sessions with POL and NBP among notable losers for the day.

Although decision to declare NRO null is viewed as positive since it propagates transparency in the judicial system and improves confidence, it could very possibly lead to some political tensions and tussle between opposition and the ruling party. We reiterate our positive outlook on the market ahead of the year end but do expect political developments to remain in focus in absence of major economic triggers and corporate news. Like MCB, ENGRO & PSO

17 December, 2009

Research Reports for 17 December, 2009

AKD

• NRO - Invalid From the Outset

BMA

• Technology & Communication: NETSOL - Strikes Gold in China

Elxiire

• NRO Torn Apart, Austerity Plan Approved

KASB

• NIT LOC Fund - Implications for KSE, Banks

first Capital

• Banks: In-kind redemption of NIT (LOC) units

JS

• NRO, Democracy & Freedom of Speec

16 december, 2009

Research Reports for 16 December, 2009

BMA

• Chemicals: PPTA - Primary Margins Showing Resilience

Elixire

• Credit by Borrowers - 4MFY10 Update

IGI

• Petroleum product sales improve 15.6% YoY

AHL

• OMCs; Time to Bounce Back

JS

• Only 2 TFCs subscribed in 2009 - Decade's lowest

15 December, 2009

Research Reports for 15 December, 2009

AKD

• Nishat Group: Expanding Footprint in the Power Sector

BMA

• Power: HUBC – Yield Advantage Despite Tax Litigation Concerns

KASB

• : Cement - Not out of the woods yet

Elixire

• NML: AES Acquisition Bodes Well

JS

• NML: Impact of potential AES power acquisition

Market Close !

Pakistan equities rose on improved political climate after key politicians reached a consensus over revenue sharing deal amongst provinces. More importantly, reduced trade deficit number down by 37% during first five months of the current fiscal year and successes on military operation were cheered by the market pushing stocks up. Renewed interest and higher volumes today were on the back of locals taking long positions mainly in financials with MCB, NBP, FABL, BOP and UBL closing at upper checks after better news from Dubai debt crisis as Abu Dhabi announced bail out plan. Other gainers included PSO, AICL, NML, DGKC and ENGRO.

We expect market to closely monitor developments on NRO cases hearing by Supreme Court with verdict due in the coming days. Expect stocks to take positive the end of long withstanding uncertainty with market likely to test 9,800 before the end of the calendar year.

14 December, 2009

Research Reports for 14 December, 2009

AKD

• Banking Sector: Reversals highly likely in 4QCY09

KASB

• Economics: recovery muted so far

BMA

• Technical Outlook: Approaching the trend line resistance, breakout with healthy volumes required

Elixire

• Consolation Evident at Macro Front

Atlas Capital Markets

• Fertilizer demand – Medium term outlook

11 December, 2009

Research Reports for 11 December, 2009

AKD

• Autos: Sales volume update

BMA

• Banks: HBL - Remain Neutral
• Trailblazer

KASB

• Autos: Low base effect lifts Nov-09 sales

JS

• Beep: EPCL: Fire incident update
• 2009: A mere 3 IPOs & a disheartening response

Elixire

• Auto: Tractors Sales Shining

10 December, 2009

Research Reports for 10 December, 2009

AKD

• Moody's comments on the economy and growth outlook

BMA

• Cement: ACPL - In the Right Direction
• Trailblazer

KASB

• Can KSE outperform the region in 1Q10?

IGI

• FCCL - 1Q FY10 Detailed Account Review

Elixire

• INDU: PT revised upward to PKR251/share

JS

• Beep: November auto sales down 19%MoM

09 december, 2009

Research Reports for 09 December, 2009

Elixire

• Banking Sector - 10MCY09 Statistics

BMA

• Chemicals: Strong PSF Dynamics Driving Growth for ICI

IGI

• Unrealized upside in PSO

KASB

• POL: Volume growth materializing

JS

• Oil sales in 5MFY10 - up 16%YoY

08 december, 2009

Research Reports for 08 December, 2009

AKD

• Banking Sector: How is 4QCY09 shaping up?

BMA

• Banks: Future NSS inflows: Important determinant for banking sector liquidity
• Trailblazer

IGI

• Despite the tip-up, Inflation consolidating in the 12% range for FY10

KASB

• Tri-pack: Low margin visibility; Neutral

Elixire

• NBP – Detailed Account Analysis of 9M/CY09
• Silkbank Limited - Vying to meet MCR

JS

• NML: Rising cotton prices - downgraded to ‘Hold’

AH

• Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs)

07 December, 2009

Research Reports for 07 December, 2009

AKD

• The luster of INDU's brands - upgrade to Buy!

BMA

• Technical Outlook: The steeper the rise, the sharper the fall / Punishing the
• Trailblaizer

KASB

• OGDC: Litigation delaying production

JS

• Adamjee: Company Update / ‘Buy’ maintained

AHL

• PPL; Negatives priced in, an opportunity to generate positive alphas

04 December, 2009

Research Reports for 04 December, 2009

AKD

• Has the inflationary cycle over?

BMA

• Fertilizer: Glut! ? Not Quite
• Trailblazer

KASB

• Banks: Tail risk growing in NPLs

IGI

• Banking Sector Update - December 2009

Elixire

• MoF reports 60%YoY higher Fiscal Deficit

JS

• Refineries: 5MFY10 production update

AH

• Fiscal deficit 1Q-FY2010

Market close

Pakistan equities traded range bound with low volumes on lack of interest and subdued FII activity. Evidently, market wants to wait out outcomes of Supreme Court hearings against NRO beneficiaries that include senior politicians holding key positions in the current administration. JSCL and AHSL led the volumes chart with the later gaining from announcement by Fatima Fertilizer (AHSL holds 24%) production commencement this month. HUBC attracted attention as company achieved financial close of its 84mw Hydel power project, closing +1%. Silk Bank also traded high volumes closing at upper lock as bank announced 313% rights issue at PKR2.5/sh. Major losers for the day include MCB, PSO, UBL and OGDC all trading pitiable volumes.

We remain optimistic on the market and expect better volumes in the coming days betting on better political climate and improved security situation.

03 December, 2009

Research Reports for 03 December, 2009

AKD

• Banking Sector - Spread holding up !

BMA

• Banks: UBL - Upside despite concerns
• Trailblazer

Elixire

• Dubai World Crisis - Implications for Banks

KASB

• EPCL: Revising estimates on lower margins

JS

• KAPCO: Company update /'Hold' maintained

AH

• Rental Power Plants (RPPs); shrouded in the mist of uncertainty

Market Close !

Pakistan equities closed down 2.1% on fears of Dubai crisis spillover and reports of FII selling on first day of trading after EID holidays. Locals continue to remain cautious that is evident from lackluster volumes trading less than 75mn shares. United Bank UBL PA, possibly the only listed entity with direct exposure to Dubai World and likely to witness a marginal impact due to recent Dubai debt standstill dampened the mood in early trading. UBL's communiqué to the exchanges clearing up fears of a larger exposure and possible major hit brought no respite with stock closing at lower lock. Financials faced selling from both local and foreign investors with sector down over 3% barring ABL that hit upper lock intraday closing up 2.2% mainly on local interest. PSO that gains from yesterday's local retail petroleum price hike failed to resist broader market pressure closing marginally flat.

We expect today's fear of Dubai debt rescheduling led wider crisis on Pakistan stocks to subside over time. Possible positives on the political front such as the President relinquishing his powers to the parliament bodes well for sustained democracy. In our view the major concern remains the fluid security situation and lack of liquidity finding its way to the market.

02 December, 2009

Research Reports for 2 December, 2009

AKD

• ABL - Standing out of the crowd

BMA

• Strategy:The ‘What If’ of Dubai Crisis for Pakistan
• Trailblazer

JS

• Banks: Spreads sticky despite weak credit appetite

AHL

• United Bank Limited – least to worry about Dubai chapter

Elixire

• FCCL- 1QFY10 Detailed Accounts Review

KASB

• KSE: Insipid Nov-09 on lack of triggers

01 December, 2009

Research reports for 01 December 2009

BMA

• Technical Outlook: KSE100 - Under Hibernation

Arif Habib Limited

• Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) 9MCY2009 earnings review

KASB

• Robust urea demand to narrow 2H10 overhang

Elixire

• Local Oil Prices Up - OMCs to Benefit, -ve for Inflation

JS

• Telecom: PTA's take on the sector in FY09