26 November, 2009

Research Reports for 26th November, 2009

AKD

• Fertilizer Sector: Monthly Update

BMA

• Cement: Will Seasonality Play This Time Around?
• Trailblazer

KASB

• Baluchistan Package finally unveiled

Elixire

• Adamjee Insurance - Top line sluggish during 9MCY09

JS

• PSMC: 2009 EPS revised down to Rs5.6 / 'Sell'

Airf Habib Limited

• Lukewarm fertilizer buying during October 2009

Credit Sussie

• UBL - Most to gain from recovery in credit demand
• Pakistan banks Update !

25 November, 2009

Research reports for 25 November, 2009

BMA

• Economy: Monetary Policy - ↓50bps - Meeting Expectations
• Trailblaizer

IGI

• SBP cuts policy rate by 50bps to 12.5%

KASB

• 50bp DR cut, measured approach continues

JS

• Monetary Policy review (Dec-Jan): 50bps cut

Arif habib limited

• Discount rate reduced by 50 bps

24 November, 2009

Research Reports for 24 November, 2009

AKD

• DGKC_The Jewel in the Kiln!

BMA

• Closed-end Funds: October 09 Review
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• OGDCL's liquidity situation - On a wing and a prayer

Elixire

• PTC - 1QFY10 Detailed Accounts Review
• NFDC Fertilizer Data 10MCY09

JS

• Refineries: Positive news flow on deemed duty

Arif habib Limited

• NML–detailed accounts review 1Q-FY2010

KASB

• DOL: reiterating our liking post mgt call

Market Close !

Pakistan equities traded another dull day with sluggish activity as investors anxiously await Central Bank's decision on key policy rate due tomorrow evening after market close with talk of rate cut as high as 75bps to 12.25%. Reportedly, absence of FII interest and cautious approach by locals led to stocks trading red across the board with PSO the only exception closing +1.3% on hopes of GoP's quick action to eliminate energy sector debt issue that bodes well for the largest OMC in the country. Bank Alfalah BAFL PA topped the volumes list with stock closing flat mainly on local institutional and individuals interest. Also in limelight was Nishat Chunian NCL PA as State Bank announced release of outstanding R&D payments to the textile exporters.

We expect activity to pick up tomorrow as rumors and hints of MPS keep interest alive. In our view, a rate cut of anything above 50bps will be cheered with market to test highs. FII interest in index heavy blue-chip, mainly oil stocks is also key to short-term market direction. With financials underperforming, any rate cut excitement is likely to give the greatest boost to lagging banks and holding stocks.

23 November, 2009

Research Reports for 23 November, 2009

AKD

• Potential Credit Cycle Reversal

BMA

• Technical Outlook: KSE100 under Strain
• Trailblaizer

Elixire

• Fund Watch
• Lucky Cement Ltd - 1QFY10 Review

KASB

• Domestic Fund Manager Survey

JS

• PPL: Earnings likely to rebound in 2HFY10

Arif habib limited

• Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) -1QFY2010 result review

20 November, 2009

Research Reports for 20 November, 2009

BMA

• Economy: Monetary Policy - Last Call – 50bps (take it or leave it)
• Cut-off Yields Revive Sentiments while Nov 28th Remains Key to Continued Strength
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• KOHE - 1Q FY10 Result Review

Arif habib Limited

• Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) 1QFY2010 – Result Review

JS

• Economic numbers and expected rate cut drive marke

19 November, 2009

Research Reports for 19 November, 2009

BMA

• Cement: DGKC - Keep a Lookout!
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• ACPL Result Review - 1Q FY10

KASB

• PSO: Volumes, margins spur upgrade

JS

• PL: Earnings to improve in 2QFY10

18 November, 2009

Research Reports for 18 November, 2009

AKD

• NSS_Liquidity and the monetary policy

BMA

• Refinery: GRMs still in line with last Quarter – Maintain UNDERWEIGHT
• Technical Analysis

KASB

• Engro: Where you want to be in Pakistan

Elixire

• Cement plants shut down - Excess supply continues

JS

• FFC: Attractive dividend yield of 13%/'Buy'

Market Close !

Pakistan equities traded volatile session with a positive open on the back of sentiment carried forth from yesterdays aggressive buying by FII (Net USD4.5mn and local institutions - Net USD6.3mn by Mutual Funds). Profit booking in late trading wiped away early gains with stocks mostly closing at day lows. Interestingly, E&P's failed to attract attention despite news that MOL Pakistan. operator of TAL block would invest between USD30-50mn to build a new gas processing plant (TAL Block ownership: POL 21%, OGDC and PPL 28% each). Media reports accusing OGDC's management of negligence that led to declining production from key Qadirpur field was brushed aside by the market. We are of the view that the news article was exaggerated and see no fundamental change, recommending to take advantage on any weakness. PTC traded highest volumes since March this year on local and foreign interest. We continue to recommend PTC on attractive yield with June2010 TP of over PKR26/sh.

We expect short-term market direction to remain sensitive to foreign flows with rate cut in the MPS to be announced on the 24th of this month a sweetener.

17 november, 2009

Research reports for 17 November, 2009

AKD

• Banking Sector: Value multiples set for rerating

BMA

• Telecom & Banks: Potential Telenor-Warid Deal: BAFL & PTC trigger
• Technical Analysis

IGI

• ATRL - Financial Results 1Q FY10

Atlas capital markets

• FFBL – 9M/CY09 Detailed Accounts Analysis

Elixire

• Askari Bank's merger with Askari Leasing
• Fund Watch

KASB

• Economy: External account to lead recovery

16 november, 2009

Research reports for 16 november, 2009

BMA

• Technical Outlook: Gold steaming through to USD1,300

Merrill Lynch

• Merrill Lynch report on OGDC and POs

Arif habib limited

• Improving trade deficit and workers’ remittances

JS

• Hubco: Attractive at current levels

Market Close !

Pakistan equities closed up 1.6% above 9k ahead of the weekend on late trading mainly led by locals. Stocks opened negative due to early morning bomb attack on the intelligence office in northern border city of Peshawar but covered losses and gained as locals took advantage at weakness. Moreover, peaceful elections in the northern Gilgit Baltistan area that wrapped up yesterday and saw participation by all major political parties boosted confidence in the current democratic setup. OGDC and MCB that were under pressure for the last two sessions witnessed a pullback to close +2.5% and +1.2% on rumors that FII selling has subsided. Moreover, key sentiment driver JSCL PA closed strong, up 4.86% trading over 17mn shares as investors eye +PKR35/sh in the coming days. PTC traded more than 10mn shares up 1.4% at close and we recommend BUY with June end TP of PKR26.6/sh. ENGRO continued to gain as locals refuse to book profits despite +7% increase in two days on news of inclusion in MSCI Frontier markets.

We anticipate activity to pickup next week and expect stocks to gain on possible rate cut in the upcoming MPS also indicated by declining PIB yields in the secondary market. Looking at index to test 9500 as most negatives in our view are priced in.

13 November, 2009

Research Reports for 13 November, 2009

AKD

• Auto Sector: Monthly update

BMA

• Banks: MCB Bank - Limited Upside
• INDUS MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED: FUELLED UP!

KASB

• E&Ps: Raising estimates on higher oil prices

IGI

• MCB Bank - Earnings for 3Q CY09 rise by 3%

Arif Habib Limited

• MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – 9M-CY2009 detailed accounts review

Elixire

• DGKC - 1QFY10 Detailed Accounts Review

JS

• Market up 1.5%; IMF appreciates signs of recovery

12 November, 2009

Research Reports for 12 november, 2009

BMA

• Auto: HCAR - 1H Result Preview

KASB

• Autos: Oct-09 number show improvement

JS

• UBL: Conference call takeaways

11 novemebr, 2009

Research reports for 11 november, 2009

AKD

• PSO: Volume leads revision - reiterate Buy!
• ENGRO: Delivering Diversified Growth!

BMA

• Banks: NBP - Buy at Current Levels
• Technical View !

IGI

• PPL - 1Q FY10 Result Review

KASB

• PKGS: Downgrade to Neutral

Credit Suisse

• Credit Suisse report

JS

• POL: Attractive despite fall in 1QFY10 earnings

Arif Habib Limited

• PPL-1QFY2009 Result Review

10 November, 2009

Research reports for 10 November, 2009

AKD

• HCAR: 1HFY10 Result Preview

KASB

• Key takeaways from Sep-09 results season

BMA

• Technology & Communication: PTC - Revising Fair Value to PKR29/share

JS

• AKBL: Company Update/Earnings revised upwards

Arif habib Limited

• NBP–9M-CY2009 detailed accounts review

6th November, 2009

Research reports for 6th November, 2009

AKD

• AKD Daily Report
• US$ Outlook (AKD FICCW November 06, 2009)
• AKD STOCK SMART: Banking Sector_Harder the Fall_Faster the Rise! (November 06, 2009)

AHL

• Pakistan State Oil (PSO) 1QFY2010 earnings review

BMA

• Economy & Strategy: KSE100 profitability up 19% yet Defensive Strategy to be Maintained
• BMA report on Mutual fund industry of Pakistan
• Market Closes under 9,000 amidst political noise

KASB

• INDU: Raising estimates post strong 1QFY10

JS

• FABL: Earnings revised downwards/'Hold' (Morning Briefing)

Invisor

• Attock Petroleum Ltd: Lower FO sales to dampen earnings growth

Foundation Research

• Habib Bank: Lower provisions drive earnings

IGI

• IGI Research - Day Break 6/11/09

Invest CAP

• Treasury focus

Market Close !

Pakistan equities witnessed a listless day today with the index struggling to sustain over 9,200. Although stocks traded in the positive territory for most part of the day, market slipped into red in the later half as broader market selling pressure dragged the index down. Talk of FII interest in Oil stocks namely PSO, POL and OGDC kept interest alive.

Although the market is devoid of any major triggers, inflation numbers due next week are likely to come down to a single digit figure that bodes well for equities. Moreover a possible rate cut in MPS later this month could revive investor confidence. Having said this, market is likely to follow political scenario with next couple of weeks expected to bring about major developments. Security situation and on going military campaign against terrorists are also expected to remain in focus.

05 November, 2009

Research reports for 05 November, 2009

AKD

• 4th IMF economic review, single digit inflation and the monetary policy

BMA

• In Focus Auto: INDU - Getting (Cash)-Rich!

IGI

• United Bank Limited (UBL) - Result Review 9M CY09

KASB

• KASB Wire - APL: Strong pick-up in volumes-Buy
• NBP: Weak revenue growth, higher exp

Elixire

• Refinery Sector 1QFY10 Review

Market Close !

The market ended today's session on an extremely positive note gaining 2.4%.

Sharp drop in long term bond yields compared to last week (raised expectations of possible cut in the discount rate in the upcoming monetary

policy) triggered strong buying in the market. Market was also supported by positive developments on the political front with news of a possible deal amongst political allies to solve the NRO issue.

There was buying across the board with the banking and the energy sector leading the way. Top performers included MCB, UBL, PSO, HUBC and OGDC.

Volumes remained on the lower side with 108mn shares traded worth USD 89mn.

04 november, 2009

Research Reports for 04 November, 2009

BMA

• Banks: NBP - Management Meeting- Key Takeaways

IGI

• LUCK - 1Q FY10 Result Review
• OMC Sector Update November 2009

Elixire

• Bank Alfalah - 9MCY09 Review

KASB

• Economy: DR cut possible despite risks

Market Close ! Market gains some ground

Pakistan equities recovered some ground on a dull trading session after yesterday's losses amid weak investor sentiment and concerns on political front. Nevertheless, most equities traded in green on local buying reportedly led by State Owned Institutions that accumulated stocks on weakness. Volumes remained thin with most activity in holding stocks JSCL and AHSL that closed down as investors switched to safer blue-chip havens. Oil stocks namely OGDC, PSO and POL and index heavy financials MCB and HBL kept the index in positive territory with some interest from FII's. It is worth noting that PPL again remained a laggard despite attractive valuations, downside protection and potential upside.

With market down over 9% in the last 12 sessions and support below 9k, we expect activity to pick up with FII flows key to the short-term direction.

03 November, 2009

Research Reports for 03 November, 2009

BMA

• E&P: PPL - 1QFY10 Results Reflect Our Anticipated Concerns

IGI

• NBP's 3Q CY09 Earnings nose-dive on higher credit costs

Elixire

• PPL - Negatives incorporated, excellent investment opportunity

KASB

• PPL: 1QFY10 meets expectations
  

Market below 9k on Political developments

Pakistan equities witnessed a decline of over 3% on fear of political crisis and deteriorating security situation. Key results announcement of PPL (1Q EPS PKR5/sh, inline) and NBP (EPS PKR3.5 for 3Q, below market estimates) in early trading failed to attract investor attention. Early morning bomb attack in Rawalpindi (near the Capital) added to investor anxiety with stocks seeing some support at 9000levels. In line with expectation market closely followed political developments and statement by MQM Chief (strong support in the financial capital Karachi) asking for Presidents resignation on the issue of NRO (that gives legal cover to many leading politicians) and to save the current democratic system led to equities tumbling to their lower locks. Major losers of the day included PSO, PTC, PPL, and ENGRO.

With earnings season over and market hunting for triggers, we expect politics to come to the forefront of attention. Talk of interim elections and fear of further political turmoil could set a bearish tone

02 November, 2009

Research reports for 02, November, 2009

BMA

• Technical Outlook:Bear Market Rallies - Similarities between Dow Jones and KSE100
• Bonds Automated Trading System (BATS)

KASB

• Oct 09: Sentiments dwindle; momentum stalls

Elixire

• SBP Hails Positive Economic Developments

IGI

• OGDC & INDU - 1Q FY10 Result review

Market Close !

Pakistan equities traded range bound with index closing down 9 points at 9159 on concerns of escalating terror threat as military aggressively hunts terrorists in SWA region. Sentiment remains weak as local institutions follow a cautious approach and avoid taking fresh positions on the last day of the month. Hub Power HUBC PA, a defensive high yield play continued to decline as rumors of circular debt related issues (Non-Sharia i.e. Islamic compliance and fear of Islamic funds selling) did rounds. We disagree with any such argument and are of a firm view that stock is bearing the brunt of supply demand imbalance and strongly advise taking advantage of the current weakness. Lucky Cement's first quarter results that grew by over 14% to EPS PKR3.41 kept interest alive even though top line margins dropped by over 400bps. Moreover, PTC's quarterly earnings at EPS PKR0.5 that beat market estimates failed to cheer with stock closing negative.

Results over the weekend of PPL and NBP to be announced Monday morning prior to market open will set the tone early next week. We expect market to remain sensitive to successes on the ongoing military operation and political developments related NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance that gives legal cover to many in the current administration). Furthermore, FII flows are also a key to the short-term direction of the market.

30 October, 2009

Research Reports for 30 October, 2009

AKD

• AKD Daily

BMA

• Cement: LUCK - 1QFY10 Earnings Preview
• Market Down 2.3% WoW; Healthy Earning Season Brushed Aside

Elixire

• PPL - 1QFY10 Earnings Preview

JS

• Economy FY09: SBP's perspective

IGI

• IGI Research

Invest Cap

• NBP and PPL - Result previews for Jul-Sep09

First Capital

• PPL & NBP: End-Sep 2009 pre-results

KASB

• Strong earnings marred by taxes